Will petrol prices rise or fall tomorrow in the UK?
No price rise or fall is expected for tomorrow, 10 October 2026.
What should I do?
With no rise in sight, what decides what you pay is WHERE you fill up: between the cheapest and dearest forecourt in the same area there's often 10p a litre or more — far more than a market day moves.
How do we know?
The Refil Forecast doesn't guess: it crosses four signals and only calls a rise when one of them commits to a specific date or to a measured probability.
- Tax calendar. The big price jumps almost never come from the market: they're fuel duty changes, VAT or discounts ending, with an officially announced start date.
- Verified news. A classifier reads the UK business press every day and keeps only what carries a start date and a clear direction.
- Brent ramp and weekly model. Crude takes one to two weeks to reach the pump; when Brent in dollars climbs steadily, the alert gets ahead of that lag. On top of that, a weekly model trained on the government's own road fuel price series estimates the chance of a rise next week, and only speaks when that chance is high and wholesale costs are rising.
- Automatic detector. On our own price history, it compares 10:00 and 18:00 UK time with the same slot the day before, and watches whether the national average has already started moving.
Does it get it right?
Every alert is checked days later against what the national average actually did: it only counts as a hit if the price moved at least 1p a litre in the direction we called. This is the scoreboard, layer by layer:
- No resolved alerts yet with the current method (since 5 October 2026).
A layer only publishes its scoreboard once it has at least 30 evaluated alerts; until then we'd rather not show percentages that chance can still move. The UK weekly model was also tested on government price data it had never seen: from 2018 to 2026, 24 of its 25 alerts at 70% or more were followed by a rise of at least 1p a litre. That is a past record, not a guarantee.
Track record since 5 October 2026, when the method changed. The previous method: 154 of 240 alerts right (64%). Read the study
| Fuel | Cheapest | Dearest | Saving/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unleaded (E10) | 1.666 £/L | 1.835 £/L | 0.169 £/L |
| Super unleaded (E5) | 1.769 £/L | 2.050 £/L | 0.281 £/L |
| Diesel | 1.900 £/L | 2.080 £/L | 0.180 £/L |
| Premium diesel | 2.019 £/L | 2.309 £/L | 0.290 £/L |
FAQ
How far in advance is a rise flagged?
When the rise has a published date (a fuel duty change, a discount ending), the alert goes out up to three days early. When the weekly model or the crude oil ramp spots it, the alert says it's coming in the next few days, without a fixed date. When the price watchdog detects it, the alert is same-day.
Do I have to pay to see this?
No. This page is open, and in the app anyone can see for free the confirmation of what happened after each alert. What Refil Pro adds is the advance alert — the only part you can act on.
Always find the cheapest option
Refil shows the cheapest petrol station or EV charger near you on the map, with official UK fuel prices. Download it free on the App Store.
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