We said so: our fuel price alert track record in Australia
This is the list of rise and fall alerts Refil has given in this market, newest first: what we called, for which date, and what the national average did next. Misses are listed here exactly like hits.
Track record since 5 October 2026, when the method changed. The previous method: 154 of 240 alerts right (64%).
Does it get it right?
Every alert is checked days later against what the national average actually did: it only counts as a hit if the price moved at least 1 cent a litre in the direction we called. This is the scoreboard, layer by layer:
- Automatic detector: 27 of 33 alerts right (82%).
- All layers combined: 45 of 55 alerts right (82%) since 5 October 2026.
A layer only publishes its scoreboard once it has at least 30 evaluated alerts; until then we'd rather not show percentages that chance can still move.
So far, in this market: 4 of 5 alerts right · Pending: 3.
An alert is checked a few days after its target date, so the latest ones show as pending. Alerts that could not be compared for lack of data do not count and are not shown. This track record and the scoreboard on the forecast pages count exactly the same thing: the same alerts, the same rule.
| Alert | What we said | Result | It moved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rise · Diesel for 6 November 2026 · expected ~2.2 c/L | Pending | — | |
| Rise · Premium 98 for 5 November 2026 · expected ~2 c/L | Pending | — | |
| Rise · Unleaded 91 for 5 November 2026 · expected ~2.1 c/L | Pending | — | |
| Rise · Diesel for 22 October 2026 · expected ~1.9 c/L | Miss | −0.9 c/L | |
| Rise · Premium 95 for 8 October 2026 · expected ~1.9 c/L | Hit | +1.5 c/L | |
| Rise · E10 for 8 October 2026 · expected ~1.7 c/L | Hit | +1.8 c/L | |
| Rise · Premium 98 for 7 October 2026 · expected ~3.4 c/L | Hit | +4.9 c/L | |
| Rise · Unleaded 91 for 7 October 2026 · expected ~2.8 c/L | Hit | +4.4 c/L |
Want to check it yourself? These same alerts are open, as JSON: https://api.refil.app/api/public/forecast-history?country=AU&limit=100.
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